Climate Prediction Center's Monthly and Seasonal Population Weighted State, Regional, and National Heating Degree Day Forecasts for the U.S.Entry ID: CAC_HFSTMSPWS
Abstract: [Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ ]
These data sets contains monthly and seasonal population weighted heating degree day forecasts for each state, each region (9), and for the contiguous U.S. A mean daily temperature (average of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures) of 65 degrees F is the base for heating degree day computations. Each state's record ... contains the seasonal (3 month) accumulation to date, percentage deviation from the normal, percentage deviation from last year, percentile of the accumulation based upon the 1951-1980 normals, forecasted monthly or seasonal degree day value (outlook), lower and upper 90% confidence interval value based upon the outlook, percentage deviation of the outlook to the normal, and the percentage deviation of the outlook to last year. All of the seasonal forecast values calculated above are then added to the previous seasonal accumulation to give a 6 projection for each state, region, and for the contiguous U.S. The data are collected from ground stations throughout the U.S. The data are displayed in tabular form. CAC only keeps the previous month's and seasonal data on-line.
The monthly degree day forecasts are obtained differently than the weekly degree day forecasts. The monthly temperature forecasts are calculated from the Climate Analysis Center's Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook maps. From its North American temperature probability map, each state is assigned a probability value that is obtained by interpolation. The mean temperature and standard deviation are estimated for the desired location by adjusting the local normal and class limits with a table (for further information, refer to the Monthly and Seasonal Weather Outlook). From these values, a monthly outlook (mean), lower boundary and upper boundary degree day estimations are made. These boundaries reflect the 90% confidence interval values obtained from the state's interpolated standard deviation. The monthly and seasonal accumulations and projections (heating) are available on the first of the month (for that month). In general, the heating degree day forecasts are run from October-April.
The three monthly (seasonal) degree day forecasts are calculated in the same manner as the monthly forecasts. A major difference is that there is a restricted time period for calculation of the heating degree day outlooks. The Oct-Nov-Dec outlook is available Oct 1; Nov-Dec-Jan outlook is available Nov 1; Dec-Jan-Feb outlook is available Dec 1; Jan-Feb-Mar outlook is available Jan 1; and Feb-Mar-Apr outlook is available Feb 1. Transitional time periods (e.g. heating degree day for Apr-May-Jun) are not done due to the extreme temperature variability and large standard deviation over this time period. This creates large boundary intervals which do not have any meaningful forecast value. Off-season degree day forecasts (e.g. heating degree days during the summer) are also not done since values are near or equal to zero. The same philosophy holds true for the monthly forecasts as well.
All data sets are available via World Wide Web from the NOAA/CPC Home
Page. Link to: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Data Set Citation
Dataset Title: Climate Prediction Center's Monthly and Seasonal Population Weighted State, Regional, and National Heating Degree Day Forecasts for the U.S.
Version: Not providedOnline Resource: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pacdir/DDdir/NHOME3.shtml
Start Date: 1970-01-01
Temporal Resolution: Monthly, Seasonal
Distribution Media: On-line
Role: TECHNICAL CONTACT
Email: Adam.Allgood at noaa.gov
Role: METADATA AUTHOR
Email: Scott.A.Ritz at nasa.gov
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Global Change Master Directory
Province or State: Maryland
Postal Code: 20771
Extended Metadata Properties
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Creation and Review Dates
DIF Creation Date: 1970-01-01
Last DIF Revision Date: 2018-06-07