Abstract:
The processes that control the formation, intensity and track of
hurricanes are poorly understood. It has been proposed that an
increase in sea surface temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate
change has led to an increase in the frequency of intense
tropical cyclones, but this proposal has been challenged on the
basis that the instrumental record is too short and unreliable to
reveal trends
... in intense tropical cyclone activity. Storm-induced
deposits preserved in the sediments of coastal lagoons offer the
opportunity to study the links between climatic conditions and
hurricane activity on longer timescales, because they provide
centennial- to millennial-scale records of past hurricane landfalls.
Here we present a record of intense hurricane activity in the western
North Atlantic Ocean over the past 5,000 years based on sediment
cores from a Caribbean lagoon that contain coarse-grained
deposits associated with intense hurricane landfalls. The record
indicates that the frequency of intense hurricane landfalls has
varied on centennial to millennial scales over this interval.
Comparison of the sediment record with palaeo-climate records
indicates that this variability was probably modulated by
atmospheric dynamics associated with variations in the El Nino/
Southern Oscillation and the strength of the West African monsoon,
and suggests that sea surface temperatures as high as at present
are not necessary to support intervals of frequent intense hurricanes.
To accurately predict changes in intense hurricane activity, it is
therefore important to understand how the El Nino/Southern
Oscillation and the West African monsoon will respond to future
climate change. 
